December 2011 Regional Home Sales

 December 2011 Regional Home Sales Report

 The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® reports on December 2011 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

A total of 1,251 homes sold in December 2011, about 15 percent fewer than the 1,465 home sales in December 2010.

Active listings are also down by about 15 percent from last year, with 3,185 active listings in December, compared with 3,737 homes available in December 2010. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in December 2011 increased by about 5 percent to 69 days, from 66 days in December 2010.
 
Sales prices decreased slightly compared with this time last year. The average sale price in December was $468,898 compared with the December 2010 average of $482,091, a decrease of about 3 percent.
 
The median price of homes sold in Northern Virginia was unchanged from December 2010, at $400,000.

The number of new pending home sales in Northern Virginia in December decreased by about 6 percent, to 1,140 from last December’s 1,217 new contracts pending.

NAR Economist Sees a Good Year Ahead

Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, analyzes the 2012 housing market conditions. 

To read his full report, click here. Here are excerpts from his forecast:

“I am fairly hopeful that our housing recovery is on the right track. Jobs are coming back, people are buying homes, home prices are stabilizing. All in all, not a bad way to ... start the new year.
…
 “...Despite those European currency and economic troubles, a possibility of an economic recession in [2012] in the U.S. looks less and less likely.

“The key reason is the housing market recovery. After six years of a demoralizing and protracted housing market recession, a light is finally appearing at the end of the tunnel - and it is not a headlight from a freight-train. It is a genuine warm sunny glow. The latest [national] pending home sales index – which reflects contract signings to purchase a home – rose more than 10 percent in October from the previous month and more than 9 percent from one year ago.

Because the wide swings in sales related to the homebuyer tax credit are largely over, that year over year increase is a clean jump and not just a rise due to some artificially low comps of the past year. Clearly, the data implies something is brewing out there. Yes, there are still cancellation issues related to appraisals, tight underwriting, and other issues. But buyers are evidently recognizing the great opportunity to own real estate and acting accordingly.
…

...”Rents are rising and rent increases accelerating. The primary rent component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 2.4 percent from 12 months ago, but has been accelerating at 4.8 percent in the most recent monthly reading on an annualized basis. Rising rents will tip some renters into home buying, while real estate investors will have an added reason to own another property. According to The Economist magazine, the rent metric in the U.S. is such that home values are 8 percent below justifiable levels.

...”Jobs are being added to the economy. Since the low point in early 2009, the economy has added 2.5 million net new jobs. Generally more jobs mean more home sales. So far, the extra jobs have not led to higher home sales. But to view it another way, pent up demand for housing has been growing and it is inevitable that home sales will have to tick higher with more jobs.”
These factors, coupled with mortgage rates that “are too low to pass up,” point towards continued stabilization of the U.S. housing market."

The data that we use to calculate our NVAR market statistics reports come from RBIntel, a subsidiary of MRIS. Recently, RBIntel changed the method used to calculate certain data points. Using these revised calculations will result in changes to our reports from prior years. 

Our 2011 reports, which include 2010 data, do include numbers calculated using the new RBIntel methods. All of our reports going forward will be created using the new calculations. Click here to learn more about the changes implemented by RBIntel. To view the RBI monthly market statistics for the NVAR region, click here.