Buyers Are Starting To Realize that Solid Inventory
and Low Interest Rates Spell Opportunity
Congressional approval of a $152 billion economic stimulus package on Feb. 7, 2008 will put cash into the hands of many U.S. homeowners and prospective homeowners by this May. CNNMoney.com reported on Jan. 25, 2008 that “[the package] includes provisions that specifically address the mortgage crisis. It aims to make getting a mortgage easier and cheaper in high-cost markets, to facilitate refinancing and to prevent foreclosures.”
According to the CNNMoney.com report, “The stimulus package [will] temporarily [lift] the dollar amount of loans that are eligible for purchase by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and that can be insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).”
Quoting Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research, the report states, "[the raise in loan limits] could remove some of the inventory overhang and alter the buyer psychology a bit. Right now they're still waiting for prices to fall."
Reinforcing the idea that consumer confidence could increase now, Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, added, "There's a lot of pent-up demand in the market. This will boost confidence among these potential buyers, and some of the people on the fence will start buying."
NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker in California, agreed. “We believe the economic stimulus bill that Congress sent to the president today is strong legislation that will quickly impact the nation’s families and economy,” he said in a Feb. 8 statement. “We are pleased that both the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits have been increased, even if only temporarily. This will be a major stimulus for the housing industry and for people who want to own a home.”
These economic boosts could favor many Northern Virginia homeowners and prospective buyers. The increased loan limits are particularly helpful to those refinancing jumbo loans or seeking to purchase expensive properties. According to Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia Corp., as reported on Feb. 8 by Realtor® Magazine online, "We're more likely to see an immediate improvement at the upper end than we are at the lower end [of the housing market].”
Federal Fund Rate Reductions Keep Mortgage Rates Low
A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate twice in January marked an aggressive move by policymakers to lower borrowing costs in an effort to keep the country out of a recession. With 30-year fixed rates remaining below the levels of one year ago, WashingtonPost.com reported on Feb. 7 that, “Analysts are hoping that this low level for mortgage rates will help spur a rebound in the housing market . . ..”
Numbers Reflect ‘Wait and See’ Mindset
Sales activity in Northern Virginia in January is in line with a nationwide decrease in consumer confidence. However, the Northern Virginia region still has favorable local economic fundamentals because of expected local job growth and continued federal economic spending. This bodes well for this region’s future real estate market as conditions show signs of stability.
As noted by Dr. Stephen Fuller of George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis (CRA) on Feb. 6, federal spending continued to rise through 2007, with procurement expenditures reaching a 10-year high last year of $54.9 billion.
CRA also reported that the regional job picture is strong. More than 20,000 new jobs are projected for Northern Virginia each year through 2011. Additionally, the report stated that of the 15 largest U.S. job markets, the D.C.-metro area showed the lowest unemployment levels: 3 percent, compared with a national unemployment average of 4.8 percent.
January 2008 Housing Data
Northern Virginia: January 2008
The Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® reports on January 2008 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.
A total of 716 homes sold in January 2008, about 47 percent less than January 2007 home sales of 1,349. At the end of January, there were 1,262 sales contracts pending.
Active listings increased by about 29 percent from last year, standing at 8,937 active listings in January, compared to 6,949 homes available in January 2007. Homes continue to take longer to sell, with the average Northern Virginia home in January 2008 staying on the market for 123 days, compared with 102 days on the market (DOM) in January 2007, an increase of about 21 percent.
The average sales price in January 2008 fell by 7.15 percent from last year, to $486,060, compared with last January’s average of $523,506.
The median price of a home sold in Northern Virginia in January was $400,000, which is a decline of about 12 percent compared to January 2007’s median price of $455,000.
Greater Northern Virginia: January 2008
Sales activity in Greater Northern Virginia (NVAR jurisdictions plus Prince William, Loudoun and the Greater Piedmont counties) for January 2008 continued to show a decline.
Greater Northern Virginia sales data for the beginning of 2008 continues to reflect a higher inventory, continued price decline and an increase in DOM. The average sales price of $422,591 in January 2008 was about 16 percent below the January 2007 average sales price of $501,801.
The number of Greater Northern Virginia region homes sold in January was 1,371, about a 39 percent decline from January 2007âs total of 2,234 sales.
Across Greater Northern Virginia, 20,493 listings are active, which is about 29 percent greater than this time last year, when 15,925 homes were available. The average DOM for a home sold in January 2008 was 129 compared to last yearâs 114 DOM.
Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.