Home Sales Statistics
June 2008

Realtors® Support Housing Stimulus Bill
Stability to the housing market and a decline in foreclosures is what the housing stimulus bill, passed by the U.S. Senate, would bring to the current market. The bill "is a big step toward helping people buy and keep their homes," said National Association of Realtors® President Dick Gaylord.

Gaylord and many other Americans are eagerly waiting for the House and Senate to finalize the bill that would ensure Americans of the opportunity to own a home and keep it.

The legislation includes, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Modernization to increase availability of FHA–backed mortgages, a tax credit for first–time home buyers, reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, permanent increases to GSA and FHA loan limits and a program to allow more mortgages to be refinanced.

The Best Is Yet To Come
Modest near–term movement is expected in existing–home sales, with a recovery in sales seen during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. However, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said "the overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means. The housing stimulus bill that is still being considered in the Senate is critical to assure a healthy recovery in the housing market, jobs and the economy."

Yun also noted that location plays a critical role in an analysis of pending home sales. "Some markets have seen a doubling in home sales from a year ago," said Yun, "while others are seeing contract signings cut in half. Price conditions vary tremendously, even within a locality, depending upon a neighborhood´s exposure to subprime loans." In fact a look at prices in several Northern Virginia zip codes paints a positive picture, despite generally declining average sales price numbers region–wide. The 22102 McLean zip code experienced a 29.61 percent increase in the average sales price from June 2007 to June 2008. In Arlington, the average sales price for the 22202 zip code increased 7.96 percent from June 2007 to June 2008. The 22205 Arlington zip code also showed an increased sales price in June, but with an average that was just 2.42 percent higher than the same period in 2007.

The regional housing market continues to adjust, according to George Mason University´s Center for Regional Analysis (CRA). The subprime mortgage resets that forced many homeowners into foreclosure should come to an end within the next several months, CRA analysts note. Underlying economic fundamentals remain solid, which will aid the region´s continued recovery.

Market Stabilization: Slow and Steady
Reporting results from a June, 2008 member survey, Yun noted that there are a measurable number of potential buyers who have the financial capacity and mortgage qualifications, yet are refusing to jump into the market because of price decline fears. When asked about their most recent potential buyer in 2008, 23 percent of survey respondents said the potential buyer did not buy, preferring to wait for prices to fall further. Based on survey results, these hesitant buyers far outnumber the people who are reportedly unable to secure a mortgage.

Yun noted, "The implication is that once there are signs of market stabilization then we may see a rush of buyers returning to the market. The recovery could be robust rather than tame. It also implies that the homebuyer tax–credit being discussed in Congress right now as part of the housing stimulus bill could make a big impact in drawing buyers to the closing tables."

Mortgage Rates Continue to Fluctuate
Investor unease has caused a shift of funds from stocks to the relative safety of bond holdings. Since mortgage rates are linked closely to Treasury note yields, mortgage rates are the lowest they´ve been since the first week of June, according to Bankrate.com. The average 30–year fixed rate reached a low of 5.57 percent in January and climbed to 6.42 percent in mid–July. Inflation and weak economic growth will continue to influence mortgage rates, likely resulting in further fluctuations. This, in turn, could affect buyer activity.

June 2008 Housing Data
Northern Virginia: June 2008
The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® reports on June 2008 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

A total of 1,900 homes sold in June 2008, just 5.05 percent less than June 2007 home sales of 2,001, and up from May home sales of 1,724. At the end of June, there were 2,103 sales contracts pending in Northern Virginia, an increase over the 1,854 contracts pending in June 2007.

Active listings decreased by 1.87 percent from last year, with 10,440 active listings in June, compared with 10,639 homes available in June 2007. Homes continue to take longer to sell in 2008, with the average home in June staying on the market for 83 days, compared with 65 days on the market (DOM) in June 2007. However, DOM continues to trend downward for the year, with a decrease from May´s DOM of 88 days in Northern Virginia.

Sales prices continue to remain lower than those realized last year. The average sales price in June fell by 14.44 percent from June 2007, to $487,549, compared with last June´s average of $569,826. On a positive note, however, the average sold price has so far remained stable in 2008.

The median price of a home sold in Northern Virginia in June was $416,000, which is a decline of 15.10 percent compared with June 2007´s median price of $490,000.

Greater Northern Virginia: June 2008 Sales activity in Greater Northern Virginia (NVAR jurisdictions plus Prince William, Loudoun and the Greater Piedmont counties) for June 2008 shows an increase from 2007.

The number of Greater Northern Virginia region homes sold in June was 3,586, a 14.46 percent increase from June 2007´s total of 3,113 sales. This marks the third consecutive month of increased year–over–year sales totals for Greater Northern Virginia.

The average sales price of $411,388 in June 2008 continues to lag behind the 2007 average by about 21.32 percent. The June 2007 average sales price was $522,836. However, the average sales price is greater than last month´s Greater Northern Virginia average of $406,899.

Across Greater Northern Virginia, the number of listings now shows a decrease from 2007 numbers, with 22,501 listings active, which is 3.87 percent less than this time last year, when 23,407 homes were available. However, the average DOM for a home sold in June 2008 was 99 compared with last year´s 83 DOM, an increase of 18.45 percent.